Gartner Estimates Windows Phone 7 to be #2 in Market Share By 2015

ZDNet UK / Blogs / Jack's blog windows Phone 7 to overtake the iPhone, says GartnerBy Jack Schofield, April 7, 2011 1:53 p.m. About this blog jack's Blog News and comment on what's happening in the technology, and the direction it is heading. Gartner is projecting that in 2015, Windows Mobile may be the second most popular smartphone operating system, for Android. This will put it ahead of both Apple and RIM IOS's BlackBerry. If this sounds familiar, it should be. IDC, Gartner's biggest rival in the IT research company, made the same prediction at the end of last month, and for the same reason: the Nokia's adoption of Microsoft's operating system.
By 2012 nearly 50 percent of the global market for smart phones will run Google's Android OS, which will be the world's most popular mobile operating system, according Gatrner.
Although this is an honest performance that is significantly less than that Symbian has in the past underlying uphill battle that Nokia has to face.
Apple's IOS will be the second most popular with 18.9 percent.
Garter is a bit more optimistic about Android.
And with a 12.6 percent share of Research In Motion's Blackberry will be the third.
Where IDC expects its market share to grow to 45.4% in 2015, Gartner predicts 48.8%.
But by 2015, these market rankings have changed quite a lot with a brand new OS leapfrogging its competitors for the number two spot: Microsoft Windows 7 Phone.
It also Apple's IOS do a little better and RIM's BlackBerry do worse.
Gartner says that Microsoft's new alliance with Nokia will operate WinPho 7 from a 10.8 percent market share in 2012 to 19.5 per cent market share in 2015, roughly equivalent to the proportion of Nokia's Symbian OS has today.iOS this time has fallen to third place with a 17 , 2 percent and RIM's Blackberry OS to third with a 11.1 percent share.
Gartner pegs IOS at 17.2% against IDC's 15.3%, and the BlackBerry of 11.1% compared to IDC, 13.7%.
It's an impressive win for Microsoft, but a bit of a disappointment for Nokia which mainly ends up treading water.
When I reported IDC's research (see Windows 7 Phone overtake the iPhone, says IDC), I noted one of the hidden assumptions: that Apple will introduce cheaper versions of the iPhone to compete with Android phones that already costs much less.
UPDATE: Great analysis of all of this over on Asymco.
(Apple did bring out the cheap and crappy iPods, so I'm not betting against it.).
This will continue to limit adoption in new regions.
If they strike, the Gartner market share estimates to be good news for Microsoft, but may be less good for Nokia.
Gartner estimates that Symbian will have a market share of 19.2% this year, and that Windows Mobile has a market share of 19.5% in 2015.
In my view, it is optimistic, given the strength of the Android juggernaut.
Questions about membership? Find the answers in the Community FAQ.